Wow, it's been some time since I've posted here. All in all, there is not a ton to really say, which is probably why I've not posted any updates. Life has just plain been too hectic. My biggest current concern is that I just cannot find the time and the motivation to get all of the work done that we need to get done in order to sell our townhome, and I can't afford to pay someone to do it either without eating up equity. I've got a ton going on at work and it's just going to get worse as we get closer to going live with our Exchange migration summer of next year. I just don't see how I'm going to get everything accomplished both personally and professionally at the same time. I can't neglect the job, so nothing gets done at home as a result. What little time I do have at home, I use to recuperate from work, to keep my marriage somewhat healthy, and to not be a stranger to my own children. Seems I have no time left once these tasks are accomplished.
Over the past few weeks I've used my leisure time to read for the most part. Authors Douglas Preston and Lincoln Child, who are bestselling fiction writers, originally caught my interest way back when the co-wrote the book "Relic" together, which was made into a movie a few years ago now. They have since written a number of bestselling fiction novels, and I've been busy reading them over the past few weeks, mostly on my train rides back and forth to work, which last about an hour in each direction. For those not familiar, you can learn more about this pair of authors here if you so desire. I've always enjoyed writers that provide a good mix of mystery, action, research, drama, horror, and sci-fi all in one novel. These guys fit the bill at least in my view. Most of the books these two gentlemen co-wrote center around one Special Agent Aloysius X. L. Pendergast, a brilliant FBI agent with a penchent for solving complex serial and usually unsolvable murders, complete with his own skeletons in his family closet which intertwine into the storylines through the books. To date I've read Relic, Cabinet of Curiosities, Brimstone, Dance of Death, the Book of the Dead, and am currently reading Still Life with Crows. While some of the titles sound somewhat dismal on the surface, and do share a surface relationship with the theme of the book, what I like the most is the depth of character development that the writers are capable of throughout the storylines, and the good versus evil overtones.
Outside of my reading, we are both busy day to day with our full time professions, children's school activities including homework on a weeknightly basis, and the assundry household tasks associated with living in today's society.
In so far as the new home goes, we are still waiting on options pricing back from the builder for hardwood flooring for the second floor bedrooms and hallway. We need this piece of the puzzle before we can finalize the price of our new home and the options we wish to install into it.
On the economic front, the Fed dropped the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September, so I remain steadfast in keeping up on my economic trend reading in an effort to best understand how to move forward with the timing of our new home build process. If this is the beginning of a new Fed easing cycle for interest rates due to the increasingly likely event of a housing led recession here in the U.S., then I'm better off waiting for as long as I can to close on the new home, as the federal funds rates is likely to drop another 50-100 basis points over the next twelve months, possibly to a 3-handle rate. This would translate into considerable interest savings on a home loan. Predicting the future is always, well, unpredictable, but we can learn from the past by analyzing it in hopes of semi-accurately predicting future economic circumstances, at least in so far as the direction of interest rates for the Federal Reserve is concerned. I for one believe we are likely to see 3-handle federal funds rates by summer of next year, given we are still a good ways away from seeing the end of the subprime mortgage problems and the fallout that we're starting to see in the banking and investment sector due to write-downs of the value of securities that hold subprime debts. Economic news is mixed at present, across various industries, so of course, the future is uncertain. Perhaps it's my pessimistic worldview, but I'm betting downside more than upside given everything I'm reading, which if I'm right, will translate into lower rates. Only time will tell.
In the meantime, I'm due to meet with some contractors to quote me on work that needs to be done in our existing townhome, in hopes that the rates are reasonable and that the timelines to get the work done are acceptable. Given the slowdowns in housing construction, I'm betting I can get fairly good deals on labor pricing, hopefully good enough that we can afford them and not overburden ourselves by trying to get the work done all by our lonesome over the next few months.
Best Regards,
HitchHiker
Friday, October 5, 2007
Monday, September 3, 2007
More accurate pictures of our house to be...
Well, despite the unusual storms we weathered over the last several days, after me beloved wife and I managed to get back onto the same page, we decided to head out to another Ryan Homes development by the name of Pelham Manor, outside of Elkton, MD, near the Brantwood Golf Course for those familiar with the local area. Our trusted Ryan Homes sales rep pointed us toward this development as she knew there were several Bainbridge models that were built in Pelham Manor. So, off to snap some more pictures we drove! We were able to snap several pictures of Elevation D Bainbridge models, which is the same elevation we've chosen for our home. I'll post two pictures here, one of an elevation D Bainbridge without a bay window, one with. I'm going to create a new poll after this post to help us decide whether or not we want to add a bay window, which is a $2900.00 option.
Picture of Bainbridge Elevation D w/o bay window
Picture of Bainbridge Elevation D with bay window
Those who are paying attention will also notice the different elevated roof pitches over the side entry garages between these two pictures. One Bainbridge has the large bonus room finished over top of the garage, the other does not.
Off to bed...
Perhaps the most challenging week of my life...
Well, these last several days have brought a lot of challenges, both personally and professionally. Personally, my wife and I have perhaps weathered the most challenging week in the history of our marriage of over 13 years. If you've ever experienced a relatively short period of time where it seems like everything that you value in the world comes crashing down around you in pieces, that pretty well describes my week. The good news is that we have weathered this storm and have come out, thanks be to God, stronger and better off for having chosen to stick together. The bad news is that earlier this week when the storms really hit, instead of working together as husband and wife, we turned against one another, and as anyone who's been married knows quite well, when both husband and wife have a string of bad days at the very same time, it generally makes for some very dismal life circumstances when the big waves from the storm arrive one after the other.
So, having weathered perhaps the largest storm we've ever come across to date, hurricanes and tornadoes included, and having survived the very worst, we now look back as we start to pick up the pieces and analyze what went wrong, why, and what we can do differently moving forward. There is much work to do personally for each of us, much to work on, much to change, and much to be thankful for at the same time.
As Christians, we look back and see targeted spiritual attacks aimed at our respective weaknesses that were designed to self destruct our family, and they almost succeeded. Thanks be to our great God that they did not succeed! We are in the initial phases of implementing changes in our lives to ensure that these same weaknesses are never again exploited, at least to the extent that they were up until the recent past.
Please keep us in your thoughts and prayers as we attempt to change our behavior, how we treat one another, moving forward. For those who had a more in depth involvement with me throughout the last several days your thoughts, prayers, and advice were invaluable. I simply do not have the words to express thanks. God bless each and every one of you.
Well, it's time for me to sign off for now...I have to help get the kids in bed and everything prepped for tomorrow, which is the first day of school for our three children. Much to do!
So, having weathered perhaps the largest storm we've ever come across to date, hurricanes and tornadoes included, and having survived the very worst, we now look back as we start to pick up the pieces and analyze what went wrong, why, and what we can do differently moving forward. There is much work to do personally for each of us, much to work on, much to change, and much to be thankful for at the same time.
As Christians, we look back and see targeted spiritual attacks aimed at our respective weaknesses that were designed to self destruct our family, and they almost succeeded. Thanks be to our great God that they did not succeed! We are in the initial phases of implementing changes in our lives to ensure that these same weaknesses are never again exploited, at least to the extent that they were up until the recent past.
Please keep us in your thoughts and prayers as we attempt to change our behavior, how we treat one another, moving forward. For those who had a more in depth involvement with me throughout the last several days your thoughts, prayers, and advice were invaluable. I simply do not have the words to express thanks. God bless each and every one of you.
Well, it's time for me to sign off for now...I have to help get the kids in bed and everything prepped for tomorrow, which is the first day of school for our three children. Much to do!
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Some pictures as promised...
Ok, this last weekend we toured a Bainbridge model in another Ryan Homes development called St Annes, I snapped quite a few pics and then drove down to Odessa National and snapped some pics of lot 22, the lot for our future new home. Not much to look at but we're obviously excited about it!
Picture of Lot 22 (our lot)Obviously not much to look at right now. The area behind our lot, where the greenfields exist, will become Copper Park according to the development plans. Copper Park will contain a baseball diamond, a shared sports field area, and a few other attractions.
Looking across the street from lot 22
The homes in the distance are the first phase built by Ryan Homes, called the Tweedsmere section. Our section is called the Lynemore section.
Photo of the golf course looking out across the street
You can see the golf course in this picture. The Odessa National golf course is scheduled to be ready for play by Summer of 2008.
Looking down the street to the right from the front of our lot
The home you see down the street is the old farm home. I'd imagine it'll be torn down sooner or later.
Looking down the street to the left from the front of our lot
Not much to say with this picture. You can see that much of the Lynemore section is already under construction, and many homes are already finished with people living in them.
A Bainbridge ready for settlement
The above picture is the home we walked through in the St Annes development. Our house will look a bit different, as this home uses "Evelation A". Elevations, for those who aren't familiar, are about how the front of the home looks. Our future home will have siding all across the front, but we've chosen Elevation D, which adds a two foot bump out to the front right of the home (the entire area to the right of the front door in the above picture), and a one foot bump out for the front door area. Elevation D also includes a double gabled roof, which adds a bit of elegance to the roofline. If I can find a home with our chosen elevation D, I'll post up a picture to give a real example.
Friday, August 24, 2007
United we stand, divided we fall...
Well, there's an article today in the Wilmington News Journal regarding our new community, Odessa National. The article is critical of the land developer, Joseph Capano, for various reasons, you can read it here if you like.
Yours truly, out of concern for my own future residence, decided to take action and start to form a cohesive group of homeowners via the internet. So, I've created a Google groups community and plan on printing out a few hundred flyers and inserting them into mailboxes with info on our new internet community. My goal is to get existing homeowners talking amongst one another and to get a grassroots movement going to ensure that Odessa National gets the attention it deserves from the builders and the land developers. Here's a link to our community:
http://groups.google.com/group/odessanational
Fun stuff for sure.
Well, that's enough for now, I hope to find some time this weekend to snap some digital pictures of our lot in Odessa National and we're hopefully going to tour a model of our home in another Ryan Homes community, St Annes, in Middletown, Delaware, Sunday evening. I'll snap a bunch of digital pictures of the model home and post up the best of them for all to see here.
Hope everyone has a great weekend! :-)
Yours truly, out of concern for my own future residence, decided to take action and start to form a cohesive group of homeowners via the internet. So, I've created a Google groups community and plan on printing out a few hundred flyers and inserting them into mailboxes with info on our new internet community. My goal is to get existing homeowners talking amongst one another and to get a grassroots movement going to ensure that Odessa National gets the attention it deserves from the builders and the land developers. Here's a link to our community:
http://groups.google.com/group/odessanational
Fun stuff for sure.
Well, that's enough for now, I hope to find some time this weekend to snap some digital pictures of our lot in Odessa National and we're hopefully going to tour a model of our home in another Ryan Homes community, St Annes, in Middletown, Delaware, Sunday evening. I'll snap a bunch of digital pictures of the model home and post up the best of them for all to see here.
Hope everyone has a great weekend! :-)
Monday, August 20, 2007
A picture of the planned golf course community...
A quick post for those interested, here's a couple of links to the layout of Odessa National. Later I'll post an edited version with my lot circled in red.
http://www.bolisproperties.com/communities/de.htm
http://www.navenewell.com/images/ODESSA.jpg
Granted, you have to strain to see the images well, if you're running IE7 you can magnify the image in your browser to see more detail. If you clicked on the first link, you can find my lot by looking at the very top center of the picture, where the road divides the map vertically, there is a bit of white space, to the left of the white space, you'll notice some yellow colored areas that resemble a baseball diamond with what looks like a rectangular sports field that slightly overlap one another. This is what is called Copper Park, one of the sports recreation areas that is part of the planned community's activities areas. Directly to the left of the the baseball diamond/sports fields, are some lots displayed vertically that back to Copper Park. The topmost lot is right on a cul-de-sac, we are the third lot from the top in that vertical column of lots.
Nave-Newell was one of the master planners for the land development of Odessa National, here's an excerpt from their website on our planned community:
Odessa National Golf Community, New Castle County, DE
Nave Newell completed a site master plan for this exclusive community, which is composed of 750 single-family estate homes, carriage homes and town homes interspersed around an 18 hole, professional golf course. A complex and sophisticated project, the Odessa National Golf Course Community features a clubhouse and driving range, walking trails, active recreation parks and vast amounts of open space.
The site encompasses over 600 acres of farmland and woodland. Environmentally sensitive areas were maintained in the Site Master Plan. The proposed development was designed to be in harmony with the natural beauty of the property.
The project required several pump stations, the delineation of floodplain areas and the design of a regional storm water management system in conjunction with golf course irrigation. Nave Newell completed floodplain studies for Hangman’s Run and Beaver Branch. In addition, the firm was responsible for preparing a Letter of Map Revision, which previously had not been completed for this property.
Bolis Properties, another one of the land development companies that was involved in the planning aspects of Odessa National, has this to say:
Odessa National Golf Club and Residential CommunityNew Castle County, DEThe Odessa National Golf Club community is a 761 home master planned, mixed-use golf course community with club house and driving range located in southern New Castle County Delaware. The project is situated on over 620 acres of land with over fifty percent of the land being deed restricted for open space.
The open space plan also consists of miles of walking trails and numerous parks.
Odessa National is comprised of 6 different housing types including town homes, carriage homes, active adult housing and several different varieties of estate homes. This project is one of the largest ever developed in the state of Delaware.
http://www.bolisproperties.com/communities/de.htm
http://www.navenewell.com/images/ODESSA.jpg
Granted, you have to strain to see the images well, if you're running IE7 you can magnify the image in your browser to see more detail. If you clicked on the first link, you can find my lot by looking at the very top center of the picture, where the road divides the map vertically, there is a bit of white space, to the left of the white space, you'll notice some yellow colored areas that resemble a baseball diamond with what looks like a rectangular sports field that slightly overlap one another. This is what is called Copper Park, one of the sports recreation areas that is part of the planned community's activities areas. Directly to the left of the the baseball diamond/sports fields, are some lots displayed vertically that back to Copper Park. The topmost lot is right on a cul-de-sac, we are the third lot from the top in that vertical column of lots.
Nave-Newell was one of the master planners for the land development of Odessa National, here's an excerpt from their website on our planned community:
Odessa National Golf Community, New Castle County, DE
Nave Newell completed a site master plan for this exclusive community, which is composed of 750 single-family estate homes, carriage homes and town homes interspersed around an 18 hole, professional golf course. A complex and sophisticated project, the Odessa National Golf Course Community features a clubhouse and driving range, walking trails, active recreation parks and vast amounts of open space.
The site encompasses over 600 acres of farmland and woodland. Environmentally sensitive areas were maintained in the Site Master Plan. The proposed development was designed to be in harmony with the natural beauty of the property.
The project required several pump stations, the delineation of floodplain areas and the design of a regional storm water management system in conjunction with golf course irrigation. Nave Newell completed floodplain studies for Hangman’s Run and Beaver Branch. In addition, the firm was responsible for preparing a Letter of Map Revision, which previously had not been completed for this property.
Bolis Properties, another one of the land development companies that was involved in the planning aspects of Odessa National, has this to say:
Odessa National Golf Club and Residential CommunityNew Castle County, DEThe Odessa National Golf Club community is a 761 home master planned, mixed-use golf course community with club house and driving range located in southern New Castle County Delaware. The project is situated on over 620 acres of land with over fifty percent of the land being deed restricted for open space.
The open space plan also consists of miles of walking trails and numerous parks.
Odessa National is comprised of 6 different housing types including town homes, carriage homes, active adult housing and several different varieties of estate homes. This project is one of the largest ever developed in the state of Delaware.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
132 Lynemore Drive - our new address as of Spring/Summer 2008!
Well, as Captain Picard says, make it so, and so it is done.
Today, August 18th, 2007, we took the plunge and decided to go to contract on a new home in Townsend, Delaware. The community, as I previously mentioned, is a golf course community by the name of Odessa National. Ryan Homes, our builder, anticipates a settlement sometime in late Spring or early Summer of 2008, we won't know any more details until we get into 2008. We won't break ground until winter is over I would imagine, which means we won't start our pre-construction meetings with the project manager/general contractor for Ryan until that point in time. We have 30 days from today to amend our contract if we so desire, which translates into 30 days to make changes to the options we've chosen to install into our new home.
Stacy and I are both excited, yet at the same time I am nervous taking on more responsibility. Stacy's comment to me on the way home today after going to contract was that she is proud of me, that I took a risk in agreeing to go to contract. I suppose I am a bit risk averse when it comes to monies, a bit on the conservative side so to speak. So, now, on to more important and urgent matters, prepping our current townhome for sale! We have a lot of work to get done in a short period of time. Our desire is to have our townhome on the market by the end of September. If we can manage a sale by late fall or early winter, by some miracle, we'll either rent an apartment until settlement, or we may consider living with our parents/in-laws if they will have us. While we are very well aware of the stresses of living with parents, as we did so for about a year's time many moons ago when we built the townhome we've lived in for the past 11 years, doing so will allow us to save a good deal of money for several months on end. At least in my view, the more we can save, the more flexibility we will have both during settlement on our new home, and beyond.
We'll be contacting a real estate agent that was recommended to us the first of next week. We plan on working with this mother/daugther real estate team to determine how best to prep our townhome for a quick sale. Our understanding is that this mother/daughter team has an excellent track record, and is currently only charging 3% commission rates for their services. Sounds a lot better than the 5-7% most other folks are charging these days.
If anyone is interested in learning more about the BainBridge model that we're having built, here's a link to the generic floor plans for our new home:
http://www.ryanhomes.com/pdfpreview.aspx?ID=32ce6b03-d9dd-4b29-a1e1-c94a123445ba
I'd be happy to talk about what options we've chosen if anyone expresses any interest in having me do so.
Our new address as of Summer 2008 will be :
132 Lynemore Blvd
Townsend, DE 19734
One unexpected benefit of the model we've chosen is that for the past couple of weeks, we've wanted the choice of a lot in the next phase that was not yet available in the community because the land development isn't far enough along to begin selling the lots in the next phase. Fortunately for us, our home requires 62 feet in width, which disqualified every single lot that is currently available in phases one and two. So, by default, we were able to move into the as yet unavailable lot number 22, and for half off the expected lot premium. Bonus!
Please do be praying for us as we start down this path, for wisdom, discernment, energy, focus (especially when it comes to getting all of the prepwork done for our townhome), patience within our family toward one another, and patience with this whole process from start to finish.
Lastly, we're getting our family vacation pictures developed soon, and we'll be sure to snap some digital photos of our little lot 22 plot of land, as well as some pics of the surrounding areas and the golf course, which is supposed to be ready for use by Spring 2008. I'll post up some of these pics for all to see...
Today, August 18th, 2007, we took the plunge and decided to go to contract on a new home in Townsend, Delaware. The community, as I previously mentioned, is a golf course community by the name of Odessa National. Ryan Homes, our builder, anticipates a settlement sometime in late Spring or early Summer of 2008, we won't know any more details until we get into 2008. We won't break ground until winter is over I would imagine, which means we won't start our pre-construction meetings with the project manager/general contractor for Ryan until that point in time. We have 30 days from today to amend our contract if we so desire, which translates into 30 days to make changes to the options we've chosen to install into our new home.
Stacy and I are both excited, yet at the same time I am nervous taking on more responsibility. Stacy's comment to me on the way home today after going to contract was that she is proud of me, that I took a risk in agreeing to go to contract. I suppose I am a bit risk averse when it comes to monies, a bit on the conservative side so to speak. So, now, on to more important and urgent matters, prepping our current townhome for sale! We have a lot of work to get done in a short period of time. Our desire is to have our townhome on the market by the end of September. If we can manage a sale by late fall or early winter, by some miracle, we'll either rent an apartment until settlement, or we may consider living with our parents/in-laws if they will have us. While we are very well aware of the stresses of living with parents, as we did so for about a year's time many moons ago when we built the townhome we've lived in for the past 11 years, doing so will allow us to save a good deal of money for several months on end. At least in my view, the more we can save, the more flexibility we will have both during settlement on our new home, and beyond.
We'll be contacting a real estate agent that was recommended to us the first of next week. We plan on working with this mother/daugther real estate team to determine how best to prep our townhome for a quick sale. Our understanding is that this mother/daughter team has an excellent track record, and is currently only charging 3% commission rates for their services. Sounds a lot better than the 5-7% most other folks are charging these days.
If anyone is interested in learning more about the BainBridge model that we're having built, here's a link to the generic floor plans for our new home:
http://www.ryanhomes.com/pdfpreview.aspx?ID=32ce6b03-d9dd-4b29-a1e1-c94a123445ba
I'd be happy to talk about what options we've chosen if anyone expresses any interest in having me do so.
Our new address as of Summer 2008 will be :
132 Lynemore Blvd
Townsend, DE 19734
One unexpected benefit of the model we've chosen is that for the past couple of weeks, we've wanted the choice of a lot in the next phase that was not yet available in the community because the land development isn't far enough along to begin selling the lots in the next phase. Fortunately for us, our home requires 62 feet in width, which disqualified every single lot that is currently available in phases one and two. So, by default, we were able to move into the as yet unavailable lot number 22, and for half off the expected lot premium. Bonus!
Please do be praying for us as we start down this path, for wisdom, discernment, energy, focus (especially when it comes to getting all of the prepwork done for our townhome), patience within our family toward one another, and patience with this whole process from start to finish.
Lastly, we're getting our family vacation pictures developed soon, and we'll be sure to snap some digital photos of our little lot 22 plot of land, as well as some pics of the surrounding areas and the golf course, which is supposed to be ready for use by Spring 2008. I'll post up some of these pics for all to see...
Friday, August 17, 2007
Finance and Investments...what's behind the market volatility these days?
The Fed cut the discount rate 50 basis points this morning (6.25 > 5.75). There's a possibility we may see a 25 basis point move in the federal funds rate in October if inflation doesn't move any further north of where it is now. Core CPI still moved .2% last month, which was higher than the forecasted .1%. We're still seeing inflation over 2% annualized so I highly doubt Bernanke will cut the federal funds rate as long as this is the case. Cutting the discount rate will help with liquidity in the short term with the credit crunch, cutting the federal funds rate won't really help with short term liquidity issues if inflation stays above 2%. Yes decreasing the fed funds rate will increase access to the money supply however if inflation rises then the two effectively cancel each other out.
The issue right now, IMHO, isn't about making money cheaper or more plentiful by and large (what the Fed can do in other words). The issue at a macro level is that the unfolding mortgage loan crisis has introduced loss of confidence across the board which has in turn produced a run on the credit markets (similar to the run on banks that have occurred in the past).
My wife and I were talking about this whole issue last night, because we're considering purchasing and building a new home soon, so we're trying to ascertain how best to move forward. Essentially, as I told her, even though the secondary mortgage markets, the RMBS markets (Resident Mortgage Backed Securities), and the CLO/CDO/derivatives markets have become amazingly complex over the last twenty years, so much so in fact that it has become extremely difficult to ascertain what the true value of these overly complex securities really are, in the final analysis, if we understand how banks and mortgage companies fund loans, via a combination of deposits, asset holdings, and lines of credit, etc., then at a high level, if any one of these pieces of the puzzle experiences a corporate or consumer confidence crisis for whatever reason, in this case uncertainty on the value of mortgage securities, then the corporations and consumers will start to pull back, or stop purchasing the securities in question, or attempt to recall their monies, or sell the securities, and those financial institutions providing access to credit, will tighten credit standards and/or suspend availability of credit altogether. The fact is that we have a major confidence crisis on our hands here on multiple levels, and we also most likely have a rather large real estate asset bubble that has peaked and is starting it's downturn.
The chart posted at the top of the page demonstrates what I'm writing about here today. Now, this particular chart is also predicting a pretty severe asset bubble collapse, which I don't necessarily agree with, but this chart also demonstrates something very important that none of us should overlook. We are in a real estate asset bubble. We've just seen the peak, the only question is, how far down will the adjustment be. Anyone who believes that the subprime "crisis" is over, is most likely sorely mistaken. The majority of ARM loans sold over the last several years don't reset until next year. The total amount of outstanding subprime and Alt-A ARM's that will reset in just the first few months of 2008 alone will add up to a larger amount than the entire year of ARM loans for 2007. In other words, we're just in the beginning of what I view as a mortgage loan crisis. We have the largest mortgage loan company in the U.S. on the brink of bankruptcy. I'll say that again, we have the largest mortgage loan company in the U.S. on the brink of bankruptcy. And Countrywide isn't overly exposed to subprime loans from a portfolio perspective, most of the companies that were overexposed, have already gone bankrupt starting late last year into the first quarter of this year.
When you start to realize that almost without exception the economic growth experienced since the 2001 recession was due to the housing and construction industries, that a significant portion of the job growth we saw was tied to these industries, and a significant portion of consumer's ability to spend was tied to MEW's (Mortgage Equity Withdrawals), and then you come to realize that all of these pieces of the puzzle are in a genuine slump, then it becomes much easier to see a recession on the horizon. Why? We'll start to see job growth numbers decrease (already did last month), unemployment numbers increase (already did last month), consumer spending decrease (starting to now), and so forth.
The real kicker this time around is, economically we've got a situation we've never had to deal with before (we always do in one way or another - that's why forecasting is never entirely accurate). In times past when asset bubbles burst, we had aggregate national savings, we had conversative banks making conversative loans that required 20% down on homes. In other words, consumers and financial institutions could absorb the short term burst of the asset bubble, because sufficient equity and savings existed to absorb price deflation. This time around, there's no savings and comparatively little equity. It's a brave new world in these respects. Nothing like the unknown to make things a little exciting!
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Regarding my poll....
You may have noticed I've inserted a poll at the top of my blog design, asking the question:
Should we move further south to Odessa if we can purchase the home we really want?
Let me provide some additional context so that whomever wishes to vote, can do so with a better understanding of what we are considering.
Currently, we live in Bear, Delaware. We've lived here since 1996 when we bought our starter home, a luxury townhome built by Blenheim Homes. It is a nice home, an end unit townhome complete with a side entrance, three bedrooms, two and one half baths, and a nearly finished basement, mostly done by yours truly with the help of family and friends over the last several years. Our current home has served and continues to serve our needs well.
I work in center city Philly and commute via the SEPTA R2 regional rail from the Newark, Delaware station into the city just about every day. On rare occasions I end up either changing rail stations to Claymont, which means I drive all the way up 495 north and take the last exit in Delaware to get to the Claymont regional rail station, or driving all the way into Philly for various reasons that are always work related. Stacy works as an English teacher about a half hour's commute from our current townhome, not too far away from where Route 7 and Kirkwood Highway intersect.
So, why are we considering moving to Odessa?
Here's the high level bullet points:
1. More space in the home - more bedrooms for the children, more leisure space for fun, bigger yard with a decent play area for the children.
2. More activities/options in the development itself. Walking paths, golfing, tennis, basketball courts, sports fields, club house, fitness center, etc.
3. Much nicer home appointments, the flooring we want, the kitchen we want, the basement and storage space we want, etc.
4. More space for the kids to ride bikes, more homes with more children to befriend.
Well, Stacy and I have been looking at existing homes in our area both online and via actual tours with a real estate agent for a few months now. Most of the existing homes we've looked at would require a fair amount of work on our part, including replacing aging major systems, as well as interior design updates, flooring replacements, and therefore a fair amount of our time and money as well, if we were to choose to purchase an existing home. Only one home that we looked at out of many, was actually in what we would consider "move in" condition with most major systems replaced (roof, HVAC, appliances, etc.). Most of the homes we've looked at are in the vicinity of where our children attend private school, to make Stacy's morning commutes somewhat manageable.
After looking at quite a few homes, we started to back off of the aggressive existing home searches and entered into a more passive mode of receiving the online notifications whenever a new home within a certain price range came on the market, and Stacy started looking at a few existing homes up closer to where she teaches as well.
Enter Mike, a former co-worker and friend of mine, who I had heard through the grapevine was moving through another friend of mine, Ted. After chatting with Mike, who's getting ready to break ground in the same development we're just starting to look at, he peaked my interest. So, Stacy and I drove down one weekend to have a look at the Odessa National golf course community. For anyone who's interested, here's a weblink to the builder's website for this community:
http://www.ryanhomes.com/community.aspx?CID=9457420020424
We are looking at the BainBridge model, mostly because it's the only model home that allows for a fifth bedroom (or what Ryan calls a bonus room) to be added over top of the garage that is a very large bedroom. Having this extra room gives us options for having a guest bedroom upstairs, an office, etc. , yet still gives us the flexibility of giving each of our three children their own bedroom. Our two younger children are both boys, and currently share a bedroom, which is starting to make for some overly-interesting boyhood conflicts that would be easily avoided if they both had their "own" space to occupy when bedtime comes around.
Because Odessa National is a genuine golf course community, we'd have access to the club house as part of living in the community, which costs a mandatory 1200 per year starting out. This buys us some free golf, and use of all club house facilities, including the swimming pool area, tennis and basketball courts, fitness gym, restaurant and bar.
I know it may seem like I'm going on and on here, but all of these things are important, because one of the biggest changes for us is that we'd be consciously deciding to become "house poor" by making this or any other move to a larger single family home given current real estate prices. The major advantage in considering Odessa National is that we've got good facilities to use to keep ourselves entertained on a regular basis, which most other communities and existing homes don't offer, all for about the same price we'd spend buying an older existing home in the Bear, Delaware area where we currently reside. Having the option of a guest bedroom gives us the flexibility to have visitors, something we don't have the ability to do currently. Most of the existing homes only have four bedrooms, so staying up in this area and purchasing an existing home, doesn't give us much more flexibility beyond having separate bedrooms for our children.
The biggest disadvantages are, that Odessa National is close to Salem, New Jersey, home to the Salem Nuclear plant, and the fact that we're adding time and distance to our morning and evening commutes, since this community is some 18 miles south of where we currently reside. This fact will add approximately 36 miles to each of our vehicles five days a week. That makes for an extra 9000 miles per year on my vehicle, and an extra 7200 miles a year for Stacy's vehicle. Figuring an average 20MPG aggregrate across both cars, with gas at 3.25 a gallon aggregate, that's an extra 2835 dollars a year in estimated fuel costs. Yes, we will consider moving to more fuel efficient vehicles, particularly me as my lease on my car is up in June 2008. which is more or less when we'd be moving into this development coincidentally.
Well, I think I've provided enough context for now. If you have comments or questions, please post them in the comments area of this post, and then vote accordingly if you so desire.
All the best,
HitchHiker
Should we move further south to Odessa if we can purchase the home we really want?
Let me provide some additional context so that whomever wishes to vote, can do so with a better understanding of what we are considering.
Currently, we live in Bear, Delaware. We've lived here since 1996 when we bought our starter home, a luxury townhome built by Blenheim Homes. It is a nice home, an end unit townhome complete with a side entrance, three bedrooms, two and one half baths, and a nearly finished basement, mostly done by yours truly with the help of family and friends over the last several years. Our current home has served and continues to serve our needs well.
I work in center city Philly and commute via the SEPTA R2 regional rail from the Newark, Delaware station into the city just about every day. On rare occasions I end up either changing rail stations to Claymont, which means I drive all the way up 495 north and take the last exit in Delaware to get to the Claymont regional rail station, or driving all the way into Philly for various reasons that are always work related. Stacy works as an English teacher about a half hour's commute from our current townhome, not too far away from where Route 7 and Kirkwood Highway intersect.
So, why are we considering moving to Odessa?
Here's the high level bullet points:
1. More space in the home - more bedrooms for the children, more leisure space for fun, bigger yard with a decent play area for the children.
2. More activities/options in the development itself. Walking paths, golfing, tennis, basketball courts, sports fields, club house, fitness center, etc.
3. Much nicer home appointments, the flooring we want, the kitchen we want, the basement and storage space we want, etc.
4. More space for the kids to ride bikes, more homes with more children to befriend.
Well, Stacy and I have been looking at existing homes in our area both online and via actual tours with a real estate agent for a few months now. Most of the existing homes we've looked at would require a fair amount of work on our part, including replacing aging major systems, as well as interior design updates, flooring replacements, and therefore a fair amount of our time and money as well, if we were to choose to purchase an existing home. Only one home that we looked at out of many, was actually in what we would consider "move in" condition with most major systems replaced (roof, HVAC, appliances, etc.). Most of the homes we've looked at are in the vicinity of where our children attend private school, to make Stacy's morning commutes somewhat manageable.
After looking at quite a few homes, we started to back off of the aggressive existing home searches and entered into a more passive mode of receiving the online notifications whenever a new home within a certain price range came on the market, and Stacy started looking at a few existing homes up closer to where she teaches as well.
Enter Mike, a former co-worker and friend of mine, who I had heard through the grapevine was moving through another friend of mine, Ted. After chatting with Mike, who's getting ready to break ground in the same development we're just starting to look at, he peaked my interest. So, Stacy and I drove down one weekend to have a look at the Odessa National golf course community. For anyone who's interested, here's a weblink to the builder's website for this community:
http://www.ryanhomes.com/community.aspx?CID=9457420020424
We are looking at the BainBridge model, mostly because it's the only model home that allows for a fifth bedroom (or what Ryan calls a bonus room) to be added over top of the garage that is a very large bedroom. Having this extra room gives us options for having a guest bedroom upstairs, an office, etc. , yet still gives us the flexibility of giving each of our three children their own bedroom. Our two younger children are both boys, and currently share a bedroom, which is starting to make for some overly-interesting boyhood conflicts that would be easily avoided if they both had their "own" space to occupy when bedtime comes around.
Because Odessa National is a genuine golf course community, we'd have access to the club house as part of living in the community, which costs a mandatory 1200 per year starting out. This buys us some free golf, and use of all club house facilities, including the swimming pool area, tennis and basketball courts, fitness gym, restaurant and bar.
I know it may seem like I'm going on and on here, but all of these things are important, because one of the biggest changes for us is that we'd be consciously deciding to become "house poor" by making this or any other move to a larger single family home given current real estate prices. The major advantage in considering Odessa National is that we've got good facilities to use to keep ourselves entertained on a regular basis, which most other communities and existing homes don't offer, all for about the same price we'd spend buying an older existing home in the Bear, Delaware area where we currently reside. Having the option of a guest bedroom gives us the flexibility to have visitors, something we don't have the ability to do currently. Most of the existing homes only have four bedrooms, so staying up in this area and purchasing an existing home, doesn't give us much more flexibility beyond having separate bedrooms for our children.
The biggest disadvantages are, that Odessa National is close to Salem, New Jersey, home to the Salem Nuclear plant, and the fact that we're adding time and distance to our morning and evening commutes, since this community is some 18 miles south of where we currently reside. This fact will add approximately 36 miles to each of our vehicles five days a week. That makes for an extra 9000 miles per year on my vehicle, and an extra 7200 miles a year for Stacy's vehicle. Figuring an average 20MPG aggregrate across both cars, with gas at 3.25 a gallon aggregate, that's an extra 2835 dollars a year in estimated fuel costs. Yes, we will consider moving to more fuel efficient vehicles, particularly me as my lease on my car is up in June 2008. which is more or less when we'd be moving into this development coincidentally.
Well, I think I've provided enough context for now. If you have comments or questions, please post them in the comments area of this post, and then vote accordingly if you so desire.
All the best,
HitchHiker
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
First post...
Well, a few words to start this blog. I've created this blog largely in response to my dear friends Brent and Kevin. Blogging seems to have caught on as Brent's wife, if I'm correct, did so avidly before she met Brent and continues to do so avidly, hence Brent is now blogging from time to time along with his beloved wife here:
http://www.lefttowrite.net/
Kevin in turn started his blog, at:
http://brotherwhereartthou.blogspot.com/
Recognizing that blogs are a great way to keep my friends and relatives up to date on whatever is ongoing in my own life, I'm going to do my best to do just that on a semi-regular basis. I'm not sure if there is a way to "subscribe" to someone's blog, perhaps someone that is more familiar with blogging can help me out here? If so, then those who wish to keep in touch with me, will have the opportunity to do just that, and will know when I've created a new post. There is much to write about however at this moment I'm on the job and therefore this initial post will be brief. I intend to post again in more detail in the not too distant future.
For those of you who are wondering where the name of my blog and comes from. For a couple of decades now, I've routinely used the name HitchHiker as my handle and alias on many a web forum. It probably harks back to HitchHiker's Guide to the Galaxy originally, however it also eerily applies to several facets of my personality, at least from my own viewpoint. WikiPedia defines hitch-hiking as follows:
Hitchhiking (also known as lifting, thumbing, hitching, or thumbing up a ride) is a means of transportation that is gained by asking people (usually strangers) for a ride in their automobile to travel a distance that may either be a short or long distance. The latter may require many rides from different people.
I tend to think of HitchHiking as "temporary in nature", an inconsistent method of travel, and somewhat risky at that, yet also fascinating at the same time. This defines my personality somewhat accurately. I am far from being a consistent person. I start many things in life and rarely "completely" finish them. This applies even to relationships and friendships in my life. Heck, it may even apply to this blog eventually, though I certainly aim to apply consistency here. I value change, at least in certain areas of my life. I bore easily of things around me, which is probably why working in technology works so well for me. By the time I'm bored of the technology in question, it's time to change it anyways (Moore's law says technology doubles every 18 months). Works well for me I suppose.
Well, it's time to log off and catch the train home from work, until next time, I wish you all the best...if you would be so kind as to post comments, particularly any questions you may have, it will definitely help me when it comes to generating future blog posts! :-)
http://www.lefttowrite.net/
Kevin in turn started his blog, at:
http://brotherwhereartthou.blogspot.com/
Recognizing that blogs are a great way to keep my friends and relatives up to date on whatever is ongoing in my own life, I'm going to do my best to do just that on a semi-regular basis. I'm not sure if there is a way to "subscribe" to someone's blog, perhaps someone that is more familiar with blogging can help me out here? If so, then those who wish to keep in touch with me, will have the opportunity to do just that, and will know when I've created a new post. There is much to write about however at this moment I'm on the job and therefore this initial post will be brief. I intend to post again in more detail in the not too distant future.
For those of you who are wondering where the name of my blog and comes from. For a couple of decades now, I've routinely used the name HitchHiker as my handle and alias on many a web forum. It probably harks back to HitchHiker's Guide to the Galaxy originally, however it also eerily applies to several facets of my personality, at least from my own viewpoint. WikiPedia defines hitch-hiking as follows:
Hitchhiking (also known as lifting, thumbing, hitching, or thumbing up a ride) is a means of transportation that is gained by asking people (usually strangers) for a ride in their automobile to travel a distance that may either be a short or long distance. The latter may require many rides from different people.
I tend to think of HitchHiking as "temporary in nature", an inconsistent method of travel, and somewhat risky at that, yet also fascinating at the same time. This defines my personality somewhat accurately. I am far from being a consistent person. I start many things in life and rarely "completely" finish them. This applies even to relationships and friendships in my life. Heck, it may even apply to this blog eventually, though I certainly aim to apply consistency here. I value change, at least in certain areas of my life. I bore easily of things around me, which is probably why working in technology works so well for me. By the time I'm bored of the technology in question, it's time to change it anyways (Moore's law says technology doubles every 18 months). Works well for me I suppose.
Well, it's time to log off and catch the train home from work, until next time, I wish you all the best...if you would be so kind as to post comments, particularly any questions you may have, it will definitely help me when it comes to generating future blog posts! :-)
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